A popular analyst known for his deep-dive research is weighing in on what the next round of regulations might mean for the crypto industry.
In a YouTube update, pseudonymous Coin Bureau host Guy tells his 2.08 million subscribers about the latest policy update from international anti-money laundering (AML) organization the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
At issue is the “travel rule,” which recommends governments force cryptocurrency exchanges, banks, over-the-counter (OTC) desks and hosted wallets share identifying information about people involved in crypto transactions worth more than $10,000.
Guy weighs the pros and cons of the FATF’s “push for unquestionable compliance” from the crypto space and says,
“It’s a bit of a double-edged sword. On the one hand, financial privacy in cryptocurrency will slowly but surely be eliminated. Privacy coins, mixers and other technologies that preserve privacy in any way, shape or form will be delisted and forbidden, else you be designated as ‘high risk.’
On the other hand, this crackdown on financial privacy will force crypto projects and protocols to decentralize, and result in better crypto projects and protocols.”
The analyst next reacts to the admission by the FATF that “of the 98 jurisdictions that responded to FATF’s March 2022 survey, only 29 jurisdictions have passed relevant Travel Rule laws, and a small subset of these jurisdictions have started enforcement.”
Guy believes that regulatory clarity on a country-by-country basis will serve the double benefit of bringing more institutional capital to the crypto niche while also preventing its absorption by today’s dominant financial sector.
“Another positive effect of the FATF’s recommendations is that it will force countries to clarify crypto regulations around the world. Recall that their inability to comply with the FATF ultimately boils down to the absence of basic crypto regulations and clear crypto definitions.
The introduction of crypto regulations and the clarification of crypto definitions will likely lead to even more institutional interest in cryptocurrency, which could potentially protect it from the more extreme endgame of the FATF to turn crypto into another arm of the existing financial system.”
The Coin Bureau host does caution that the travel rule seems like an inevitability, despite his belief that AML efforts since the inception of cryptocurrency have been negligible based on data from the money laundering information page on the FATF website.
“Unfortunately, it looks like institutions won’t be able to stop the FATF from forcing countries and the crypto industry to implement the travel rule once basic crypto regulations have been established. The worst part is that there is zero empirical evidence that the travel rule does anything at all. Believe it or not, but this info can be found on the FATF’s own website…
According to a 2009 report by the UN, ‘Criminal proceeds amounted to 3.6% of global GDP, with 2.7% being laundered. This falls within the widely quoted estimate by the International Monetary Fund who stated in 1998 that the aggregate size of money laundering in the world could be somewhere between 2% and 5% of the world’s gross domestic product.’
Call me crazy, but this tacitly confirms that the FATF’s recommendations did absolutely nothing between 2009 and 2020, when this particular web page was published.”
The FATF previously updated its guidance policies and goals last October by discussing stablecoins, non-fungible tokens, decentralized finance and decentralized applications.
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