Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since May 12. The trading range since May 19 is from a high of 41,323.05 set on June 15 to a low of 28,800.01 on June 22, down 30.3%. The upside from this low reached its semiannual pivot at 35,643.29 on June 29. A secondary low of 30,400.00 was set on July 19. From this low bitcoin is now trading back and forth around its 50-day simple moving average at 34,183.35.
If bitcoin can stay above 34,183.35 the upside is to its semiannual and weekly risky levels at 35,643.29 and 36,863.07. Even with this upside, its weekly chart stays negative given a close on Friday, July 30 below its five-week modified moving average at 36,162.14.
The Daily Chart for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has been trading above a golden cross since May 26, 2020, when the 50-day simple moving average—then at 8,322.00—rose above the 200-day simple moving average at 8,052.43. Notice how the 50-day SMA was a buy level at 29,252.24 on January 27. The next time the 50-day SMA was tested it was 50,951.90 on March 25. On April 18, bitcoin closed at 55,550.00, below the 50-day SMA at 56,252.44.
Bitcoin traded below its 200-day SMA at 39,763.27 on May 19. The trading range since then has been down from 41,323.06 on June 15 to 28,800.01 on June 22.
The horizontal line at the top of the graph is this month’s risky level at 62,927.95. The horizontal line at the bottom of the chart is the annual value level at 18,892.52, which is the overall downside risk.
The three horizonal lines within the trading range are the weekly risky level at 36,863.07, the semiannual risky level at 35,643.29, and the quarterly pivot at 32,802.94.
The Weekly Chart for Bitcoin
The weekly chart for bitcoin is negative but oversold and is below its five-week modified moving average at 36,216.42. It’s well above its 200-week simple moving average or reversion to the mean at 13,939.59.
The last two longer-term buying opportunities came during the weeks of March 15, 2020 and the week of August 2. On March 15, bitcoin tested its 200-day SMA then at 5,540.89. On August 2 bitcoin broke above the down trend line at 10,128.28.
Trading Strategy: Buy bitcoin on weakness to its quarterly pivot at 32,802.94 and reduce holdings on strength to its semiannual and weekly pivots at 35,643.29 and 36,863.07.